Saturday, June 26, 2010

Rising Support for Yuan as a Reserve Currency

CHINA VS. INDIA

More than one year ago, I had written on this blog regarding the global ambitions of China; in particular its push to get Yuan accepted as international reserve currency (Of Triffin's Dilemma and China's Ambition , April 6, 2009). Since then, things have moved slowly, but almost surely in favor of this move. The latest voice to be added to this growing 'movement' is that of Asian Development Bank, which released a report this Thursday suggesting Yuan 'has the potential' to become an alternative to the US dollar (Yuan can become alternative reserve currency to US dollar-ADB).

At this point, it is not known how long it will take for the Yuan to "internationalize". That is irrelevant. What matters is the reality of China becoming more and more important in the international financial system and its implications.

China has emerged as a stabilizing force over past 18 months in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. It has done favors and most likely would have been promised rewards in return. Furthermore, China's continued cooperation is important for the world to avoid lurching back into the deep, black hole that was barely missed about 18 months ago. In other words, the timing is just right for the dragon to stake its claim to its rightful place in the world.

That brings us to the next question: what is dragon's rightful place in the world? That question gets answers as diverse as the 'color depth numbers' on the latest LED TV models; right across the spectrum. There are those who just can't stop loving China, staking everything on its economic juggernaut. There are those who just can't help being skeptics. Then there is the newer, emerging view that China is just like Japan in the late '80s; overrated, but just a spent force about to go belly up.

Truth is likely to stranger than all these punts. Punts they are because it is hard to know China despite all those 'research dollars' being thrown at it by consulting firms, investment banks and brokerage houses, trying to make sense of the puzzle that China is. Instead of relying on these 'house views' and 'in-depth studies', it is better to simply look at the growth curve of country and something rather simple: human behavior.

And the human behavior dictates that the internal consumption story in China has not even woken up yet to its full potential. Per capita GDP numbers hide a vast gulf of disparity between China's elite and its have nots. The have nots have kept quiet so far due to the ability of the system to deliver and the system has been delivering. Why should they put their faith in anything else? As soon as their turn comes, an army of consumers will rise. There is nothing to stop them.

There is a historical precedent to it as well. Much to the chagrin of purists, the US of A provides the prime example of an economy in transformation; exactly one hundred years ago. The economy had just been finding its feet after a 50-year growth run with per capita incomes of about $5000 in today's terms (about $1000 higher than today's China, but then you can't be exact about this stuff). What happened after that is anybody's guess. Runaway growth, wild capitalism, rampant bull runs; only to be tempered by a Wall Street crash and global depression twenty years later.

Folks, the dragon has barely begun. More on this later.

Ciao. And apologies for disappearing for so long.

 
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